Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 9.976090 11.452808 13.042199 14.876329 16.930642 19.156697 21.747363
2025-11-16 7.767114 9.759319 12.070349 14.934070 18.370901 22.345582 27.271624
2025-11-23 6.514677 8.684797 11.327600 14.754547 19.049173 24.219210 30.876162
2025-11-30 5.677206 7.982406 10.914193 14.871050 20.019998 26.436083 34.970320
2025-12-07 5.157278 7.590483 10.801596 15.284016 21.302777 29.019296 39.559717
2025-12-14 4.519422 6.955174 10.286957 15.090786 21.736442 30.488358 42.743925
2025-12-21 3.848017 6.189727 9.507969 14.445688 21.476344 30.976379 44.597811
2025-12-28 3.583418 5.983120 9.485635 14.836005 22.637278 33.402475 49.137205
2026-01-04 3.318435 5.744243 9.387085 15.092843 23.601615 35.577718 53.399857
2026-01-11 2.995185 5.378775 9.062920 14.980379 24.005243 36.959414 56.581885
2026-01-18 2.703978 5.033613 8.736816 14.831155 24.328082 38.217103 59.612233
2026-01-25 2.476581 4.770555 8.515053 14.819429 24.842801 39.757889 63.092427
2026-02-01 2.290485 4.564720 8.375744 14.937544 25.576737 41.676877 67.245714
2026-02-08 2.090922 4.314945 8.142997 14.885485 26.035544 43.195499 70.857503
2026-02-15 1.898876 4.057454 7.872956 14.745425 26.332243 44.459470 74.106993
2026-02-22 1.765363 3.895581 7.754158 14.847791 27.019297 46.345779 78.369325
2026-03-01 1.690928 3.840072 7.818390 15.265364 28.241630 49.114784 84.095837
2026-03-08 1.537058 3.610246 7.546458 15.070506 28.416304 50.205862 87.199902
2026-03-15 1.341213 3.272467 7.045073 14.426796 27.780856 49.944893 88.115199
2026-03-22 1.289472 3.233232 7.108108 14.816438 28.956424 52.696735 93.991104
2026-03-29 1.225843 3.161477 7.101475 15.073067 29.904163 55.097254 99.362166
2026-04-05 1.127523 3.001875 6.907613 14.960701 30.180832 56.371282 102.903052
2026-04-12 1.034230 2.843275 6.702651 14.811658 30.378495 57.510123 106.244836